Big at the back?
Hello! After what-seems-to-be-an-eternity, the double game week is finally over. There were fortunes made (looking at you Stones and Antonio owners) and there were hearts broken (looking at you Mo triple cappers). Regardless, here we are, looking ahead to the next game week.
Before we move on, there is one announcement. I recently started creating visualizations on FPL ideas/concepts and you are the lucky ones chosen to be my guinea pigs. Feel free to reply to this email to provide feedback. If you would like to see more of these, you can follow me on Twitter @thefpldigest
So here is this week’s visualization, depicting the FMLFPL’s advice from their latest episode. As you hunt for KDB replacements, remember, it’s okay to leave money in the bank.
This post brings you FPL advice from last week’s free podcasts:
Topics Covered
🎙️ Team/Players Talk
🔁 KDB Replacements
🛡️ Big at the Back
📈 Effective Ownership
👑 Captaincy
🎙️ Team/Players Talk
Below are some of the brief reviews of a handful of teams.
🔴 Liverpool
Liverpool is behaving like Bitcoin, hit a peak a few weeks ago, and now seems to be in a downward trajectory. All the pods have their views on why they are not performing as well.
FMLFPL believes it’s a mix of two factors. One, the usual system is not working due to losing key players in VVD and Gomez which also forced Fabinho to move to defense thereby disrupting the midfield as well. Two, poor performances from the front three of Mo-Mane-Firmino.
AC folks agree with this assessment and also pointed out that Jota was providing the attacking outlet that was needed but his injury further blunted their attack.
WGTA folks compared Liverpool’s last 6 games with the 6 prior to that and found that while shots on target and goals have decreased, the shots in the box, big chances, and xG is pretty much the same. So attacking opportunities are the same, but the quality in attack has decreased. Which supports the assessment of poor performances from the front three.
Having said that, all pods were unanimous in their agreement that you should not think about selling Salah. There are multiple reasons for it - there just aren’t many players in this price bracket you can go to, likely your team has other fires to attend to, and his effective ownership is high (more on that later) which can hurt your rank. However, captaining him is not encouraged unless you start seeing some consistent performances from him again.
While the attack has been disappointing, their defense should not be ruled out as their defensive numbers have been the same. Robbo, being the prime shout, should be considered if you already have two/three City defenders.
👹 Manchester United
Having dethroned Liverpool at top of the table, everything seems to be going right for ManU. Assuming you already have Bruno, the pods discussed other assets that you can consider doubling up on.
While Pogba is playing amazing football, he may not be a good FPL asset. He may trickle in points, but there are better assets in his price bracket.
Rashford has split opinions across pods. While some think he doesn’t play well enough and has high chances of blanking, others feel he is a good pick and has good fixtures coming up that he can capitalize on. It’s worth noting that he is flagged for a knee injury so monitor the situation before bringing him in.
Martial doesn’t look any good and Cavani seems to be their best number 9. Cavani is a decent shout.
In defense, Shaw is a shout if you are interested, but he should not be considered over City defense if you don’t already own one or two of them.
🦊 Leicester City
With the sea of green fixtures ahead of them and recent good performances, Leicester's assets are turning everyone’s heads.
Since having their key players like Maddison, Pereira, Castagne back and the likes of Ndidi looking good again, it seems that their good form should continue. Vardy’s injury has thrown a spanner in the works, but that should not discourage you from considering Leicester's assets.
Barnes and Maddison have been dominating most of the discussions as managers look to bring in midfield assets into the team. While both are good shouts, FMLFPL feels that Barnes is a better pick as he gets in better attacking positions and gets far more chances.
WGTA looked at the stats for the two and found that Barnes gets a higher volume of chances but his quality of finishing is poor. Whereas Maddison, despite getting fewer shots, has better finishing. The pod was split on deciding between the two, some preferring Maddison due to his better finishing and others preferred Barnes citing that his finishing has improved and Maddison’s attacking numbers have become worse season-over-season.
🦅 Crystal Palace
It’s clear that Palace is not playing well and not a good place to invest in. However, if you need a cheap defender to warm your bench, don’t forget about the 3.9 m Tyrick Mitchell.
🦚 Leeds United
AC folks have christened them as the ‘most interesting team’ in the league. And rightly so. Their relentless attack and open play is an absolute joy to watch which makes owning the likes of Bamford and Dallas all the more special.
Their defeat to Brighton was an utter shock but FMLFPL believes it was probably just an outlier. So don’t be worried about your Leeds assets just yet.
🔁 KDB Replacements
This is THE decision most managers have to deal with this week.
First, as pointed in the intro, remember - it’s okay to look for cheaper alternatives and leave money in the bank. You don’t have to feel compelled to bring in expensive players.
FMLFPL feel going from KDB to another City attacker is not a wise move. There are other teams to look at for midfield players and the play with City is to invest in their defense.
However, WGTA folks believe that with the amazing next three fixtures, City attack is worth considering.
Gundogan is the bandwagon luring most managers. He has second-most shots in the last six and is just 5.5 m which frees up a lot of funds to invest in other places. Essentially, you have to decide who deserves the third City spot in your team - Gundogan or a third defender. Both are decent shouts.
Sterling, while not being most hosts’ choice, was given a shout as he can be a differential.
Son is the next popular option. They have decent fixtures coming up, especially with Liverpool and Chelsea not being the threats they were early in the season.
Next up are the Leicester assets - Maddison and Barnes. As discussed in the Leicester section, it’s a 50-50 call between them, with more hosts marginally inclining towards Barnes. Maddison is the better finisher but gets fewer shots, Barnes gets more attacking opportunities but is a poor finisher.
Grealish is a good shout. Aston Villa seemed to have overcome their Covid outbreak and with Barkley back which will help his game, Grealish should be a serious consideration.
Rashford is an under the radar shout. It’s worth noting that he has more xG than Maddison and Barnes, more shots in the box, more shots, and more touches in the box. Plus, he has lower ownership and with a good run of upcoming fixtures, he can help you climb the ranks. One caution though: he is currently flagged for injury so you should monitor that before bringing him in.
🛡️ Big at the Back
We started the season with big in the back, went on to losing faith in defense with teams conceding for fun, only to be back at considering investing heavily in defense.
Be it the fixture pile-up, tired teams, or the general craziness of the season, but we are seeing fewer games with big scorelines. So considering investing in defense seems the right thing to do.
All pods highly favor investing in City defense, with triple City defense being a genuine shout. Cancelo, Dias, Stones - take your pick. It’s worth pointing out that Cancelo seems to be consistently putting in really good attacking numbers and while that hasn’t materialized till now, all pods believe that his attacking returns should come in soon.
Everyone also gave a shout to Robbo as Liverpool’s defensive numbers look good. And FMLFPL also discussed TAA as a decent option.
Shaw and Justin are decent shouts too given both the team’s upcoming good fixtures.
Villa defense is a really good shout too as they continue to look pretty solid in the back and have amazing fixtures coming up. Get Konsa, if you need a cheap defender and Targett if you want some attacking threat too.
📈 Effective Ownership (EO)
You may have heard this term and may even be using Live FPL to check your live ranks. WGTA explained this seemingly complicated concept and discussed how it can be used to up your FPL management.
What is EO?
EO is the ‘effective’ % of managers that own a player.
If only 100 people play FPL, and 70 own Salah, his EO is 70%.
If all 70 captain him, it is 140% (since the captain counts as the player playing twice). So EO can be more than a hundred percent too.
EO can be calculated on any set of FPL managers, it can be for all managers, top 10k managers, or managers around your rank.
If EO is high for managers around your rank and you don’t own the player, then your rank will be negatively impacted if the player scores. Conversely, if you own a low EO player, then him scoring will help you climb ranks.
How to use it?
You can check EO of players using the amazing website, Live FPL.
If you are having a bad season and want to gain ranks, you should transfer in players with low EO. However, note that this is a high-risk-high-reward avenue. If the player does poorly, then your rank will further slip.
If you are having a good season and want to consolidate your rank, get players with high EO.
👑 Captaincy
Bruno is the standout pick across all pods. He looked really good against Fulham and is playing the worst team in the league.
If you would like to live life on the edge, capping a City defender is a decent shout.
And for you adrenalin junkies out there, Bamford playing against a really poor Newcastle is an option.
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