O, Captain! My Captain!
Hello! If you have been benching Soucek or Dallas when they hauled, or picking the wrong captain, don’t beat yourself up on it. 50-50 calls are exactly that… fifty-fifty. You win some, you lose some.
This post brings you FPL advice from this week’s free podcasts:
Topics Covered
🎙️ Team/Players Talk
💰 Salah - Money - Bench
🛡️ Defenders
♟️ Chip Strategy
🥗 Potpourri of topics
👑 Captaincy
🎙️ Team/Players Talk
Below are some of the brief reviews of a handful of teams.
🐦 Brighton & Hove Albion
If there is one take away from this post for you, it should be that Brighton deserves your attention. All pods discussed how they have really improved in recent weeks and flying under the radar for most FPL managers.
Since replacing Matt Ryan, their defensive performances have really improved. They are 2nd for xGC, conceded just 2 big chances in the last four games, and kept 4 clean sheets in the last four as well.
They were posting similar good defensive numbers earlier in the season too, but their defense used to have one brain fart moment every game leading to a goal being conceded. But that doesn’t seem to happen anymore.
Attack wise, Trossard is putting up good numbers. Another player to monitor would be Gross, who FMLFPL gave a shout for but Wire folks discussed that he is a good player, but not necessarily a fantasy asset.
Take away: Monitor Brighton and jump on them before everyone else does.
✝️ Southampton
Yes, Southampton lost by 9 goals. Yes, they lost by 9 goals last season too. No, this is not Déjà vu and we don’t live in the Matrix (I think).
Ridden by injuries, Southampton has been playing really poorly off late and the early red card against ManU didn’t help either. Last season, they turned around their season after a 9-0 spanking against Leicester. But, all signs point to that not happening this time around. You should stay away from Sou assets for now.
🦚 Leeds United
It’s time for the customary Leeds section in every week’s post. But can you blame me? I know I sound like a broken record - they are a joy to watch and you should watch their games.
They played really well against Everton and Bamford looked good too. If you still have him, don’t sell him.
Raphina is playing really well too and is getting a lot of points for his price. He is even more interesting now, given the confirmation of double game week for Leeds.
🏙️ City 🅰️ Arsenal 🐺 Wolves
Just some brief mentions on the pods for these teams
Sterling looked good last game and is a good option, with a double week for City coming up too.
Wolves played poorly against Arsenal and their win was fluky. Arsenal could have easily scored more goals and were unlucky not to win. So continue to avoid Wolves, and keep faith in your Arsenal assets.
💰 Salah - Money - Bench
Liverpool haven’t been playing too well recently and performing poorly on the eye test. This has translated into Salah’s performance too, who has gotten fewer points in the last 6 games than the likes of Dawson, Zinchenko, and Trossard.
However, in the last 4 game weeks, Liverpool has created the most chances, third-most big chances, and are third for xA. And Salah is posting good stats too. So they are still playing well and should improve in coming games.
So, the eye test says sell Salah… stats says keep Salah… you say wtf! Overall, all pods agreed that Salah should not be sold.
In case you already sold Salah, or have a lot of money in the bank from other premium assets you offloaded, don’t feel compelled to spend all the money. In the last 6 games, top point scorers have been - Gundogan, Dias, Stones, Wan Bisaka, Maddison, Periera, Bruno, Soucek, Cancelo, and Dunk. So the best performers are budget assets right now.
Further, if you got the money, invest in a strong bench. We are still in the middle of a pandemic and Champions League football will return soon. So insure yourself against the occasional benching of your main players. However, be prepared to be benching points every now then. Don’t beat yourself up on 50-50 calls (cue: visualization in the beginning).
🛡️ Defenders
Villa defense has been repaying the managers’ faith most of the season but recently, there has been a drop off in their defensive performances. Compared to the first 16 games, in the last 5, their defensive stats like shots conceded in the box, big chance conceded, xGC per game, all have become worse. And this happened over a decent fixture run. So you should reconsider your Villa defensive assets.
While Liverpool defenders haven’t been returning too many points, they are still not conceding more than one goal in a game. Even in the last game, they conceded the goal from a deflection. So if you have Liverpool defenders, you can continue to hold on to them.
West Ham defense has been doing well and Coufal/Cresswell continue to remain good shouts.
As mentioned earlier, Brighton's defense has massively improved recently and should be seriously considered in your transfer plans.
ManU defense has been doing well in the last few games and Wan Bisaka and Shaw are good shouts for defender spots in your team. Especially Shaw, who The Wire folks dubbed as “one of the best value” defenders in the game right now. In the last 6 games, he created an astounding 19 chances, which is the highest for any defender. The second behind him is Robertson, with a seemingly paltry, 9 chances.
Chelsea defense is also worth considering as a punt, especially if you are planning to wildcard soon. Rudiger offers excellent value at 4.5 and Alonso seems to be back to doing Alonso things.
♟️ Chip Strategy
It has been said before and needs to be repeated, if you don’t already follow Ben Crellin on Twitter, you need to change that right now! We have confirmation on some double game weeks coming up, and are anticipating a huge double game week in GW26. If your chips are intact, The Wire folks discussed a couple of strategies you can consider.
Strategy 1: Wildcard before GW26
Wildcard in GW25 to bring in as many players from teams with double games in GW26 as possible.
Then bench boost in GW26 (assuming you still have it intact)
This allows you to make short term transfers between now and GW25 without any worries.
Strategy 2: Wildcard after GW26
Wildcard after GW26. This is because you may already have a lot of players from the teams that would likely get double games in GW26 - like, City, Villa, ManU, Spurs. So it will not be difficult to get a full team of double game week players without a wildcard.
Then bench boost in GW26
This allows you to save your wildcard for later, in case there are postponements due to Covid or at any point, you need an overhaul of your team.
Note: don’t use this strategy if you are thinking of taking -8 or -12 to get to your team. The hits are not worth saving the wildcard for.
Regardless of the strategy, your goal should be to maximize points from bench boost (if you still have it) in GW26. At this point, the teams to target for GW26 seem to be - Triple City, Leeds attack, Villa attack, Spurs - who should have Kane back by then, Southampton - if their attack improves, Brighton, and Leicester.
🥗 Potpourri of topics
Below are a bunch of varied topics that the pods discussed.
Confirmed double game weeks
It was recently confirmed that City, Everton, Burnley, Fulham have confirmed double games in GW24. And Southampton, Leeds have confirmed doubles in GW25. So, plan your transfers accordingly.
New kids on the block
From the new signings in Premier League this January, there aren’t any players that you need to immediately jump on. The players to monitor are Kabak- if he improves Liverpool’s defense, Minimino - if he rejuvenates Southampton attack, Maja - as an enabler if Fulham start getting some goals, and Lindgard - if he gets regularly minutes and keeps up his performances.
Under the radar
Some of the under the radar picks that FMLFPL folks discussed were Saka - who is 6th in the league on non-pen xG+xA, Cavani - who has the best non-pen xG per 90 in the league, Gross - who is at the center of a revitalized Brighton team, and Rudiger - who is excellent value at 4.5m.
👑 Captaincy
This is a tough week for captaincy!
Son was supposed to be the standout pick this week, but Spurs’ attacking performances haven’t been too inspiring and many pod hosts think you should look elsewhere. However, some of them are still going to captain him, pointing to a dismal West Brom defense and the fact that Spurs will likely play more attacking against West Brom as they are a bottom team.
Antonio is a decent shout, given Fulham’s poor defense - in the last six games, they have conceded most headed chances, most big chances, and doing poorly on xGC.
Bamford is another decent shout. Crystal Palace hasn’t been doing well and Leeds may be looking for revenge against the 4-1 drubbing that Crystal Palace handed them earlier in the season.
Given Southampton’s poor defensive displays, Wilson is a differential worth considering.
If you don’t like the above, seemingly rogue shouts, then you can consider captaining Bruno who looks like a secure option. However, one concern would be that Everton are capable of defending deep if they need to.
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