Team reviews, the role of luck, and Kane/Son duo
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Topics Covered
🎙️ Team reviews
🛡️ Defenders to target
🤞🏽 Is it all luck?
🥗 Potpourri of topics
👑 GW9 Captaincy
🎙️ Team reviews
Going into GW10, below are some of the brief reviews of a handful of teams.
🔴 Liverpool
If you want to lose your money, try betting against Liverpool. Despite a depleted defense and missing their talisman, Liverpool played really well and continued to look great.
Robertson put in a man of the match performance. If you still have him, you probably already believe in him. And with Brighton up next, you should continue to be firm in that belief.
Having tested negative and played in Champions League midweek, Salah should be back for Liverpool’s next league game. If you already moved him out anticipating a longer absence, tough luck! But AC folks recommend keeping faith in the replacement you got in. Give them at least one more match, and based on Salah’s performance in the next match, you can plan to bring him in after that.
Jota is the talk of the town. With his current form, AC folks think that Klopp should continue to start him. He looks great, seems integral to the team right now, and is super cheap. FMLFPL shared these views and added that he is a Foden-esque pick where his price justifies his place your team, knowing he will be rotated at times but will probably score most of the times he starts.
AC folks did warn that Jota should not prevent you from getting Mo/Mane, as it is generally not a good idea to get cheaper players to try and “cover” the premiums from the team. Further, FMLFPL also cautioned that Jota’s limited minutes should be a serious consideration in your decision making, especially since there are other similarly priced players like Jack, a fit Zaha, Rodriguez that you can pick.
🏙️ Manchester City
Despite City’s dismal performances so far, you can’t help but think that they are a bomb waiting to explode. Due to their upcoming good fixtures, the impending return of Aguero, world-class talent, and an astute manager in Pep, all pods believe that this seems like the right time for City to get back to their usual self.
Everyone agrees that City’s defense is a no-brainer and an easy buy if you are shopping for defense in the 5.5 m bracket.
Getting in City’s attack is a different ball game though. WGTA and AC folks discussed that to afford City attack, you will likely have to ditch the likes of Kane, Son, Bruno, Vardy, Salah, or Mane. You should be comfortable moving these performing assets out in the hope that City attack returns more points. It’s a high-risk-high-reward move, not for the faint of heart.
🦊 Leicester City
AC folks were not sure what to make of Leicester as Liverpool’s pressing was really good which didn’t give them a lot of chances in the game. While Leicester definitely didn’t play well in the match, they feel it’s hard to judge them as they played against the juggernaut that Liverpool is.
FMLFPL discussed that Leicester’s defense is probably a good place to invest. However, they cautioned that while Leicester’s short term fixtures are good, they turn bad soon after that.
🅰️ Arsenal
Arsenal’s defense is a unanimous pick across pods as a fine investment as they look to be one of the most bankable clean sheets every weak. Both Bellerin and Gabriel look like good options at their price point.
Having scored just 1 goal in the last 5 games, Arsenal’s attack looks really blunt. However, AC folks mentioned that they believe in Arteta to improve the attack in the future.
FMLFPL shared the sentiments and discussed that the Arsenal attack should be closely monitored as they can prove to be differential picks. Aubameyang finally started in the middle of the attack and if Arsenal starts scoring again, he will be a fine pick with his reduced price. Martinelli is currently injured but he is a good player too and one to be monitored once he is back. Similarly, Saka at 5.3 m should also be on the watchlist as he is quite cheap and should be starting the next couple of games with Pepe out due to the red card.
🦚 Leeds United
FMLFPL discussed how they have changed their opinion on Bamford and think not owning him seems absolutely insane. His movement is fantastic and Leeds create loads of opportunities for him to continue scoring regularly. It’s worth noting that Leeds is 3rd in the league for non-penalty xG and Bamford is #1 in non-penalty xG/90.
🍬 Everton
FMLFPL pointed out that the ~28% of managers who continue to have Rodriguez in their team should note that he played well against Fulham and was central for everything that Everton was doing. It’s worth holding on to him for a couple of games and then reassess.
🛡️ Defenders to target
In response to a listener’s question, FMLFPL discussed options in the back.
Defenders from West Ham and Burnley look like good value as the teams are setting up to defend well. However, it’s worth noting that both their fixtures are not too great and should be considered while bringing them in.
Kilman from Wolves also looks like a good option at his price. While Wolves’ fixtures are not too great either, they look likely to get clean sheets in the easy fixtures in their run.
Villa defense looks like a trap as the team’s playing style is quite attacking which makes them vulnerable at the back. However, due to their good fixture run, Villa defense is a hold as you may have other fires to put out in your team.
Reece James looks to have nailed his starting spot and is a good option in the resurgent Chelsea defense.
Matip is a shout too given his price and his goal threat from set-pieces.
🤞🏽 Is it all luck?
In response to a listener’s question, WGTA had an interesting discussion around the significance of luck vs skill in FPL. I would be doing you a disservice if I don’t share this song with you that this topic reminds me of and I blast every time I work out. You’re welcome!
While ‘luck’ is more of the subjective element affecting your team, ‘variance’ is the statistical term that tries to capture luck. For example - the difference between a player’s expected goals and actual goals is their variance.
No matter how many parameters you account for, Variance will never be able to capture the real-world factors like the player’s mood before the match or what breakfast they ate. So there will always be luck involved in how players perform, and hence luck involved in your success as an FPL manager.
However, there are many FPL managers who have been consistently producing good ranks year over year. This tells us that there is enough skill involved in playing FPL too.
For instance, with the change in rules, we know that there is an increase in penalties this season. With around a quarter of the season played, we are on course to have more than double the penalties from last season. So while you can complain that Bruno keeps getting points from penalties, the reality is that we need to absolutely account for penalties while making transfer decisions this season.
It’s also important to know the context behind statistics to differentiate what is luck and what is not. For instance, Son is overperforming his xG by 5.5 and Zouma by 2.4. While Son is a clinical player and we would expect him to continue to overperform his xG, Zouma is probably being lucky with getting so many-headed shots coming his way this early in the season and turning into goals. Hence, the age-old trusted combination of stats plus eye test is recommended by the FPL vets.
🥗 Potpourri of topics
Below are a bunch of varied topics that the pods discussed in response to the listener’s questions.
Has the ship sailed?
It’s common for FPL managers to not get some players in after they have risen in price multiple times thinking that it’s too late. But WGTA reminded us that sometimes you just have to suck it up and do the right thing! It’s almost criminal to not have DCL at this point.
The team everyone loves to play against
AC believes that Fulham is not capable of setting up to defend and is capable of conceding multiple goals. Hence, targetting or captaining players from teams that play against Fulham is a decent strategy. It’s worth noting that they play Leicester, Man City, and Liverpool in the next three games.
FMLFPL had a different opinion. They believe that Fulham actually plays compact when playing bigger teams. They instead think Leeds is a better team to captain against. Even when good teams play against them, Leeds continue to play an attacking style which makes them vulnerable at the back.
Son-Kane duo to continue?
AC discussed that Son and Kane continue to look sturdy and have the ability to finish the chances they get. They do not recommend ditching them.
WGTA discussed that if you do need to get rid of one, it will depend on your team which one should be dropped. Son will likely make way for someone like Salah or Bruno, and Kane for Vardy. There are pros to both players - Son is better suited to Spurs’ counter-attacking style, while Kane is in red hot form and has the added dimensions of assists and penalties in his favor. There’s no one right answer here.
👑 GW9 Captaincy
Both AC and WGTA believe that the most captainable assets are Liverpool against Brighton and Leicester against Fulham.
Right behind the above two is KDB with City playing Burnley. Both these assessments are backed by FFTitans as well.
FMLFPL folks believe Bruno and DCL are great picks. Southampton plays a high line which favors ManU’s style, and Leeds also have a very attacking style which should favor DCL. AC folks agreed with this assessment as well.
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